The England captain has yet to claim any silverware in his career, but a win at the BayArena on Saturday would send his team 11 points clear
Bayer Leverkusen midfielder Granit Xhaka quite correctly pointed out earlier this week that “all of Germany” is looking forward to Saturday’s meeting with Bayern Munich. Truth be told, though, the Swiss was probably underselling it a bit.
This is a game that’s likely to draw the attention of nearly the entire footballing world. And not just because it’s a top-of-the-table clash between the best two teams in the Bundesliga and a pair of legitimate contenders to conquer Europe this season.
Rightly or wrongly, ‘The Harry Kane curse’ is also part of its enormous appeal, because a Bayern win at the BayArena would extend the Bavarians’ lead to 11 points with just 12 rounds remaining – and that would all-but guarantee a first-ever piece of silverware for their long-suffering striker.
Collector of runners-up medals
Goals have always flowed freely for Kane, who has won Golden Boots in the Premier League and at the World Cup, but his stunning strike-rate has only made his trophy drought all the more infamous.
Admittedly, his legendary lack of success can be primarily attributed to the fact that he’s spent the vast majority of his career playing for Tottenham and the Three Lions – two much-mocked specialists in failure.
Consequently, Kane has become a typically reluctant collector of runners-up medals, in the European Championship (twice), the Champions League and the English League Cup (also twice!).
However, it’s barely believable that he’s still waiting to pick up a prize of any variety since joining Bayern Munich in the summer of 2023. Kane didn’t even get his hands on the DFL-Supercup in his first game for the club!
Rather incredibly for a forward renowned for his timing, Kane picked precisely the wrong moment to join Bayern, who, last season, endured their first trophy-less campaign for 12 years – in spite of their €100 million (£84m/$104m) signing’s record-breaking exploits in attack.
Unsurprisingly, that amused an awful lot of Kane’s haters (the majority of whom support Arsenal!), and even had sane individuals wondering if there really is something in this ‘curse’!
However, there are no dark forces at work here, nothing untoward going on. The supposed ‘curse’ has not been in any way responsible for Kane failing to win a trophy at Bayern. Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen have played a massive part, though.
From ‘Neverkusen’ to ‘Neverlusen’
Kane had the misfortune to arrive in Germany at a time when Alonso had already laid the foundations for one of the most sensational seasons the European game has ever seen.
The Spaniard had done a fine job dragging Leverkusen away from the relegation zone after taking over at the BayArena in October 2022 – and the club also recruited well the following summer, acquiring players specifically suited to Alonso’s style of play. It was thought, then, that Leverkusen might have a strong 2023-24 campaign.
Nobody, though, not even the most optimistic supporter, would have even dared to dream of what followed, as ‘Neverkusen’ were transformed into ‘Neverlusen’, with Alonso’s side winning both the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal without suffering a single defeat.
A Bayern team in a constant state of turmoil under Thomas Tuchel simply had no answer to Bayer’s record-breaking brilliance. This year’s response, though, has been emphatic.
From Burnley to Bavaria
There were plenty of sceptics when Bayern eventually unveiled Vincent Kompany as Tuchel’s successor last summer.
For starters, it was clear the Belgian hadn’t been anything close to the club’s first-choice. Alonso, Julian Nagelsmann, Ralf Rangnick and Oliver Glasner had all been approached by an increasingly desperate Bayern, who had even tried to convince Tuchel to continue at one point.
Then, there was Kompany’s seriously underwhelming spell in charge of Burnley, who had just been relegated from the Premier League with a paltry 24 points. Even more significantly (and worryingly from the Bayern fans’ perspective), Kompany stood accused of being too rigid, too tied to his footballing philosophy.
In England, it was felt that he should have demonstrated greater tactical flexibility in order to keep the Clarets up.
Tellingly, though, Manchester City Pep Guardiola was completely convinced that his former captain had the makings of a great coach. “I have the biggest admiration for his work, personality and expertise,” the Catalan said of Kompany, who had also coached hometown club Anderlecht before moving to Turf Moor. “It doesn’t matter that he got relegated with Burnley.”
Pep has been proven correct.
Flipping the script
Last season, Leverkusen set a pace that Bayern simply couldn’t live with – but the roles have been reversed this term.
The reigning champions have still only lost one Bundesliga game – and that was all the way back in August, at home to RB Leipzig – but they still find themselves eight points behind the leaders.
Bayern aren’t looking at an unbeaten season of their own, as they lost at Mainz just before the winter break. But they’ve won seven straight games since then and their tally of 54 points is the fourth-highest after 21 rounds in Bundesliga history.
It’s also worth pointing out that Kompany currently boasts the highest points-per-game average (2.6) the German top flight has ever seen.
Kane and his fellow forwards have obviously been key in that regard. Bayern centre-back Eric Dier said after the 2-1 Champions League win at Celtic, “We know we have incredible quality up front that can cause teams a lot of damage.” And he’s not wrong.
Kane has 29 goals in 29 games in all competitions this season (it’s 73 in 74 since he arrived in Munich!), while Michael Olise has proven a predictably sensational signing, as the Frenchman so thrillingly underlined with his thumping opener in Glasgow.
The 21-year-old Jamal Musiala, meanwhile, continues to go from strength to strength and already has 15 goals this season – one fewer than his best-ever haul over the course of a single campaign (2022-23).
Diligent defensive work
However, Kompany has arguably done an even better job with Bayern’s backline, which is the best in the Bundesliga by some distance.
The defence has only been breached 19 times and allowed their opponents 109 shots on target – another competition record at this stage of the season.
Kompany turning Kim Min-jae and Dayot Upamecano into a reliable centre-back pairing has been key, but he’s also got the entire team working relentlessly to contain opponents.
“The defensive side of things is very important to him,” winger Serge Gnabry told the Bundesliga’s official website. “So, I think for us as strikers, having to press, trying to get the ball back as quickly as possible, it’s a good thing.
And for sure he kind of brought us very close together as a team, as a squad. I think we have a great spirit right now.”
Will it all be enough for Bayern to finally get the better of Leverkusen on Saturday, though?
Potential title decider
Bayern haven’t beaten Leverkusen since 2022 and, as well as picking up a point in the league meeting at the Allianz Arena back in September, Alonso’s men also dumped their title rivals out of the DFB-Pokal this season by beating them 1-0 in Bavaria in December.
Furthermore, the last time Bayern travelled to the BayArena, in February of last year, they were completely dismantled in a chastening 3-0 defeat that pretty much ended their reign as champions of Germany.
Obviously, a lot has changed over the past year, but it’s not as if Leverkusen have capitulated and Bayern have become infallible. Just look at the Champions League; while Bayern were in Glasgow for a play-off game on Wednesday, Leverkusen were enjoying a midweek off after progressing directly to the last 16 thanks to home wins over the likes of AC Milan and Inter.
In Florian Wirtz, Leverkusen are also arguably in possession of the best attacking midfielder in world football right now, while Alonso is spoiled for choice up top, with Victor Boniface returning from injury to compete for a starting spot with Patrik Schick, who has more Bundesliga goals from open play this season (14) than penalty king Kane (12).
Leverkusen clearly have to win. They know that anything other than three points would probably leave them with too much ground to make up, given the way in which Bayern are swatting aside nearly every other team in Germany. However, they don’t seem to feel under any pressure whatsoever.
“The goal is to win the match,” Alonso said this week. “If this happens, we will be five points away. We are not afraid, we are not nervous. I am really not worried.”
Bayern shouldn’t be either, though, and that’s why this clash has such global appeal.
Leverkusen are more than capable of breathing new life into the title race, but Bayern could just as easily kill it – and effectively break the Kane curse in the process.
